Introduction: UK unemployment hits highest since early 2021
Good morning. Unemployment across the UK has hit a near five-year high, and wage growth has slowed.
The latest labour market data, just released this morning, shows that the UK jobless rate rose to 5.2% in the October-December quarter.
That’s up from 5.1% in September-November, and the highest rate since the first quarter of 2021.
The number of workers on company payrolls fell too – down by 130,000 over the year and by 46,000 over the quarter.
This follows many months of complaints from businesses that chancellor Rachel Reeves has pushed up employment costs, through increases in national insurance contributions and the minimum wage.
Earnings growth cooled in the quarter too. Basic pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 4.2% in the October-December quarter, down from 4.4% a month ago.
Total earnings (including bonuses) growth also slowed to 4.2%, down from 4.6% in September to November 2025.
ONS Director of Economic Statistics Liz McKeown said:
“The number of workers on payroll fell further in the final quarter of the year, reflecting weak hiring activity, although it is largely unchanged in the latest month. Over the same period the unemployment rate increased, with data showing that more people who were out of work are now actively looking for a job.
“The number of vacancies has remained broadly stable since the middle of last year. Alongside rising unemployment this means that the number of unemployed people per vacancy has increased, reaching a new post-pandemic high. Meanwhile, redundancies are also showing an upward trend.
“Private sector wage growth continues to slow and is at its lowest rate in five years. Public sector pay growth also slowed in the latest period but remains elevated, still affected by some pay awards being implemented earlier in 2025 than 2024, although this effect has now started to diminish.”
The agenda
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7am GMT: UK labour force data
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7am GMT: German inflation report
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9.30am GMT: UK productivity data for Q4 2025
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10am GMT: ZEW’s eurozone economic sentiment survey
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1.30pm GMT: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Key events
What the experts say
Here’s some snap reaction to the rise in UK unemployment:
Jonathan Raymond, investment manager at Quilter Cheviot, says there are signs that the UK labour market is ‘creaking’:
“Following a November where hiring plans were put on hold due to the budget, things are yet to get going again, potentially highlighting the longer-term impacts of increases costs that businesses have faced.
Increased minimum wage costs, national insurance contributions, business rates and concerns around the impact of the Employment Rights Act continues to show up in the data and appears to be putting a weight on the economy. Economic indicators were beginning to shine some positivity but that has arguably been wiped by this latest data.
Patrick Milnes, Head of People and Work Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, blames those rising employment costs:
“There are strong signs that the labour market is continuing to loosen as wage growth including bonuses has eased to 4.2% and the rate of unemployment has risen to 5.2%.
“Wage growth is being propped up by the public sector and the number of unemployed people per vacancy now sits at 2.6, the highest in more than 10 years if the pandemic period is excluded.
“Last year, businesses were hit hard by the increase in National Insurance contributions, and many are now facing further rises in the National Living Wage alongside higher business rates. Our research shows that labour costs remain the biggest cost pressure for businesses, cited by 72% of businesses.
“Against this background it is unsurprising they are holding off hiring. Especially as the imminent introduction of new Employment Rights legislation adds additional complexity to the picture.
“While the Spring Statement will provide a fuller update on the economic outlook, businesses are clear they want to see concrete action to reduce costs, boost exports and encourage investment.”
Ben Harrison, Director of the Work Foundation at Lancaster University, says today’s figures show a weakening and uneven labour market, with more people looking for work and with young people particularly hit:
“While overall employment appears broadly stable and the rise in redundancies has slowed, the pain is not evenly spread. Young people, disabled people and men are bearing the brunt of the rise.
“Youth unemployment is now at 14.0%, the highest rate for five years. This is particularly concerning as the number of 18-24 year olds out of work has jumped by 80,000 on the quarter to 575,000. More young people are actively seeking work, but too many are struggling to secure it.
“Vacancies remain subdued at 726,000, despite a slight uptick on the quarter. The Government clearly recognises the need to provide more support to help people back into work but many initiatives – such as jobs on wheels and youth guarantees – remain in pilot phases.
“To Get Britain Working, Ministers must prioritise a twin focus on rapidly expanding tailored employment support and ensuring those returning to work are able to access secure, and well-paid jobs across the country.”
Unemployment rate among 18-24 year olds rises to 14%
Peter Dixon, senior economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, has spotted that the number of young people out of work has risen:
Below the surface, there are indications that younger workers in particular are being priced out of the market.
A rise of 33 per cent in the minimum wage over the past two years has pushed up the unemployment rate for 18-24 year olds by more than two percentage points to 14 per cent.
With a further inflation-plus rise in the minimum wage for 18-20 year olds scheduled for April, young workers will continue to struggle to gain a foothold in the labour market in the near-term.”
The ONS also estimate that firms kept cutting workers in January.
Its early, provisional, estimate of payrolled employees for January 2026 shows a decrease of 11,000 within the month, meaning payrolls were 134,000 lower than a year ago.
The rise in unemployment means competition for vacancies is intensifying.
There were 2.6 unemployed people per vacancy in October to December 2025, up from 2.5 in the previous quarter (July to September 2025) and up from 1.9 in October to December 2024.
Pay rose faster in the public sector than at private companies in the last quarter of 2025, today’s labour market report shows.
Annual average regular earnings growth was 7.2% for the public sector, more than twice as fast as the 3.4% increase in the private sector, the ONS reports.
That’s quite a difference… but if you dig into the jobs report, you can see that the public sector annual growth rate is affected by some public sector pay rises being paid earlier in 2025 than in 2024.
That causes a base effect, which should phase out over the next few months.
Real wages rise by just 0.8%
UK pay growth was particularly weak in the last quarter of 2025 once you account for inflation.
Today’s labour market data shows that annual real regular pay (ex-bonuses) rose by just 0.8% in October to December 2025 – that’s using the Consumer Prices Index measure of inflation.
Real pay was last lower than 0.8% in June to August 2023, when it was 0.7%, the ONS reports.
Introduction: UK unemployment hits highest since early 2021
Good morning. Unemployment across the UK has hit a near five-year high, and wage growth has slowed.
The latest labour market data, just released this morning, shows that the UK jobless rate rose to 5.2% in the October-December quarter.
That’s up from 5.1% in September-November, and the highest rate since the first quarter of 2021.
The number of workers on company payrolls fell too – down by 130,000 over the year and by 46,000 over the quarter.
This follows many months of complaints from businesses that chancellor Rachel Reeves has pushed up employment costs, through increases in national insurance contributions and the minimum wage.
Earnings growth cooled in the quarter too. Basic pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 4.2% in the October-December quarter, down from 4.4% a month ago.
Total earnings (including bonuses) growth also slowed to 4.2%, down from 4.6% in September to November 2025.
ONS Director of Economic Statistics Liz McKeown said:
“The number of workers on payroll fell further in the final quarter of the year, reflecting weak hiring activity, although it is largely unchanged in the latest month. Over the same period the unemployment rate increased, with data showing that more people who were out of work are now actively looking for a job.
“The number of vacancies has remained broadly stable since the middle of last year. Alongside rising unemployment this means that the number of unemployed people per vacancy has increased, reaching a new post-pandemic high. Meanwhile, redundancies are also showing an upward trend.
“Private sector wage growth continues to slow and is at its lowest rate in five years. Public sector pay growth also slowed in the latest period but remains elevated, still affected by some pay awards being implemented earlier in 2025 than 2024, although this effect has now started to diminish.”
The agenda
-
7am GMT: UK labour force data
-
7am GMT: German inflation report
-
9.30am GMT: UK productivity data for Q4 2025
-
10am GMT: ZEW’s eurozone economic sentiment survey
-
1.30pm GMT: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/feb/17/uk-unemployment-rate-hits-five-year-high-wage-growth-slows-rachel-reeves-bonds-borrowing-costs-news-updates