Go to university! No, get a trade! How can young people survive when all the paths are landmined? | Jason Okundaye

Some months ago, I was at my old university, speaking to prospective sixth-form and college students about taking a degree in the arts and what future careers they could expect. It was a cohort of teenagers from underrepresented backgrounds: all of them had that glint of ambition in their eyes, a desire to better their circumstances. After the talk, they showed me their precocious LinkedIn profiles already advertising their talents to future employers. I expected them to ask what would be of more value out of a degree in the arts or Stem, but I was unprepared for something more bracing: whether it was worth them going to university at all.

It is a question that keeps on rearing its head, as the graduate recruitment crisis and crippling student debts paint a picture of a pursuit with diminished returns. Those of us in the orbit of young people increasingly wonder whether we can, in good conscience, encourage them to go and get a degree. The options being presented increasingly look like snake oil, so is it any wonder that young people feel disillusioned and deceived?

There was a time when university was considered a reliable mechanism of social mobility. It was a philosophy inculcated under New Labour, with the then prime minister, Tony Blair, announcing in 1999 his intention for “50% of young adults going into higher education in the next century” (a figure that sat at just 20% in 1990). The idea was simple: a knowledge-based economy would create the jobs of the future, and it was the country’s duty to prepare young people for it. This higher-skilled workforce would be able to better compete globally, translating to a boost in economic growth and a clear pathway for working-class young people to enter the middle class.

But the future is here and the jobs are not. University participation has increased, with the 50% target for those under the age of 30 reached in England in 2017/18. But the availability of professional opportunities has not kept pace: this is borne out by the worst graduate jobs market “in a generation”, with AI threatening entry-level jobs and increasing uncertainty. Indeed, the “big four” accounting firms – Deloitte, EY, PwC and KPMG – have reduced their graduate recruitment numbers. The prospective students I met spoke with some warranted scepticism. I could tell them about the career that I, and peers, had made for ourselves with our degrees, but something was already clear to them. They could be bright and ambitious but one day they will enter a job market that is impenetrable. So, what should they do?

There is an emerging consensus that university numbers should fall, with almost half of the British public feeling that too many people go. One idea being floated is that, to beat the bots, young people should learn a trade instead: a computer cannot fix your piping or wire a house. Suella Braverman, Reform UK’s education spokesperson, talks of upending Blair’s goal so that 50% of young people go into trades instead (I am doubtful she imagines her own children becoming part of this group). The march of AI could put us on the path of a blue-collar revolution, so to speak.

Some of those who already chose that path are laughing. Joshua King, a London-based electrician who promotes choosing trades over university on his TikTok account, tells me that while he received good grades, he opted to learn a trade because it would give him practical experience and skills. He says that an increasing number of students and graduates are approaching him for job advice. “People feel like it’s more achievable to go down that route and make good money,” he says.

It is all well and good to tell young people to learn a trade, but the reality is that not all will be interested in such a career. It is also not to degrade the lot of a tradesperson to say that these roles are not held in the same social esteem – King tells me that he still braves judgmental looks from white-collar workers while on the train in scruffy work trousers. So young people get a mixed message from society: go to university and be burdened with debt, or become a plumber and we’ll look down on you.

There is also the reality that some blue-collar jobs are at risk where automation is possible. As the Financial Times says: “There is little sign that any promised ‘blue-collar boom’ will be powerful enough to reverse the long-running decline of traditional skilled manual jobs.” The data also still favours university for prosperity: 87.6% of working age graduates in England were in employment in 2024 compared with 68% of non-graduates, with £42,000 as the median nominal salary for graduates against £30,500 for non-graduates (though that is not the full story, as the graduate earnings premium has declined in Britain).

The idea of a university degree becoming an increasing irrelevance to employers is also overstated. According to Felicity Halstead, founder and CEO of GoodWork, a charity helping underrepresented young people (graduates and non-graduates) navigate the job market, degrees are still used as a filtering mechanism among other factors. She recalls a young person speaking with summer interns at a tech company and being frustrated that, despite knowing just as much about computer science as them, all of those interns had degrees, putting the young person without one at a disadvantage.

There is a very real risk of making degrees something only those with family wealth and security are encouraged to pursue. This would discourage young people with educational potential, but without the status or money to insure themselves in the job market, and squeeze them out so that the already privileged have further advantage in winning competitive roles.

Adrian, a friend of mine, didn’t have the opportunity to attend university as a teenager because of his background, but knew that he was capable. Without a degree he felt shut out of a range of professional jobs and confined to customer-facing work. Since then, he has attended a Russell Group university as a mature student, graduating with first-class honours, and now works in policy. “Imagine if I internalised the message that ‘university isn’t for someone like you’? I never would’ve been able to study, stretch my intellectual capacities and research skills. There are a lot of kids in the same position.”

Higher education enables young people to deeply engage with a subject, live independently and get to know themselves better. It would be a mistake to decide that since university is no longer a reliable ladder to employment, it is not worth stepping on to at all. Perhaps it is unfashionable, even irresponsible now, to say that young people should go for personal enrichment. But we also cannot frantically encourage or discourage paths based on short-term labour market forecasts, and a future that is harder and harder to predict.