Stock market today: Live updates

The S&P 500 pulled back on Monday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s last meeting of the year later this week.

The broad market index fell 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 198 points, or 0.4%.

Weighing on stock sentiment was the 10-year Treasury yield continuing its recent run higher. The benchmark has moved up this month despite the likelihood that the Fed cuts this week as investors fret about the state of inflation in the new year and whether the central bank will be able to continue easing.

Traders have grown increasingly hopeful over recent weeks that the Fed will lower interest rates once again after it issued a quarter percentage point cut at its meetings in September and October. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, fed funds futures are pricing in a roughly 87% chance of a decrease, up from under 67% a month ago.

The increasing optimism has recently been reflected in stocks, which scored their second positive week in a row. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also notched four-day winning streaks on Friday, while the Dow saw its third positive session in four. Stocks received a boost on that day following the delayed release of softer-than-expected September core personal consumption expenditures price index data — one of the last major economic releases ahead of the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting.

“The market action you’ve seen the last one or two weeks is kind of essentially baking in the very high likelihood of a 25 basis point cut,” said Stephen Kolano, chief investment officer at Integrated Partners. “For some very unlikely reason, if they don’t cut, forget it. I think markets are down 2% to 3%.”

Beyond the anticipated cut, Kolano expects Fed Chair Jerome Powell to emphasize a data-dependent stance for the months ahead, especially given that last week’s November ADP data showed even more of a labor market slowdown. Not only that, Powell’s term expiring in May 2026 could make him “kind of agnostic” toward market expectations regarding next year’s rate path, he added.

“I would not be surprised for Jerome Powell to be like, ‘We’ve cut, and now we’re in a place where we really need to watch the data,’ and he’ll stop just short of being hawkish, because we have seen the softness in the labor market,” the investment head said. “If you start to see rate cuts get pushed out further into [2026], then you [should] start to see, I think, more negative pressure on the market in the first half of the year.”

During Monday’s session, technology was a strong spot. Broadcom shares jumped 2% and hit a new record high on the heels of The Information reporting that Microsoft is discussing designing custom chips with the chipmaker.

Meanwhile, Confluent shares surged 29% after IBM said that it’s going to acquire the company in an $11 billion deal — which is expected to close by the middle of 2026. Oracle shares increased 1% amid investor optimism ahead of the company’s quarterly results on Wednesday.